#3 Oregon vs #23 Utah | NCAAF Betting Analyisis

The game of the year in the Pac-12 has arrived as No. 3 Oregon visits No. 23 Utah on Saturday night in what could be a preview of the conference title game. The Ducks are likely in that game even with a loss and are for sure with a win. The Utes also are in with a win.

Here’s a quick look at each from the college football odds.

How to Bet Oregon at Utah NCAA Football Odds & TV Info

  • When: Saturday, 7:30 PM ET
  • Where: Rice-Eccles Stadium
  • TV: ABC
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • Opening NCAAF Lines: Utah -3 (total 59)

Series History

Oregon leads all-time 23-10 and 10-5 in Salt Lake City. The schools haven’t met since 2019 when the Ducks won 37-15.

Why Bet on Oregon?

The Ducks (9-1) handled Washington State 38-24 last week. Senior QB Anthony Brown completed 17-of-22 passes for 135 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. He also had 123 rushing yards with a touchdown on 17 carries, leading all ball carriers. He never had more than 52 rushing yards in a single game in his four seasons with Boston College, but he has five games over that total this season.

Travis Dye had one rushing touchdown and one receiving touchdown, and Byron Cardwell rushed for 98 yards and two fourth-quarter scores. Oregon’s offense is tied for second in the nation with 31 rushing touchdowns, including 15 in the last four games. Dye needs 92 more rushing yards to reach 1,000 in a season for the first time in his career.

UO is No. 5 nationally with a 51.56 percent third-down conversion rate, going 31-of47 (65.9%) in the last four games. The Ducks are averaging 297.0 rushing yards per game over the last three contests, surpassing 250 in all three.

The Ducks have a two-game lead on their Pac-12 North competition with two games to play, needing a win at Utah or in the regular-season finale against Oregon State to clinch a spot in the conference championship game. The Ducks are in the thick of the College Football Playoff conversation at No. 3 in the rankings, and their No. 4 ranking in the AP poll is the program’s highest since finishing the 2014 season at No. 2.

Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux has been selected as a finalist for the 2021 Bronko Nagurski Trophy, awarded to the most outstanding defensive player in the nation.  Thibodeaux is the second Nagurski Trophy finalist in program history, and first since Haloti Ngata in 2005. He is No. 3 in the Pac-12 with six sacks this season despite missing multiple games due to injury and No. 5 in the Pac-12 with 10.0 tackles for loss.

Why Bet on Utah?

Utah (7-3) beat Arizona 38-29 last week. The Utes finished the game with 468 yards of total offense, their sixth straight game with 450+, which included 294 yards passing and 174 yards on the ground. Utah has scored 15 of its 27 rushing touchdowns (58%) in the last four games. Utah is the only team in the Pac-12 to rank in the top five across all defensive and offensive categories.

The win tied head coach Kyle Whittingham with Ike Armstrong (1925-49) as the all-time winningest coach at Utah, with 141 in his career. Whittingham is now 141-69 as the longest tenured coach in the Pac-12 and second-longest tenured coach in the FBS at the same school.

In Pac-12 games only (last seven games), the Utes lead the league in scoring offense (38.4), touchdowns scored (36), total offense per game (466.3) and rushing touchdowns (24) while ranking second in rushing offense (242.0) and team pass efficiency (144.7).

Utah’s defense ranks third in the Pac-12 in total defense (344.1), leading the league in sacks (3.18) and in tackles for loss (7.7) per game. Utah’s tackles for loss per game is tied for third in the FBS. Through the first five games, Utah ranked 10th in the Pac-12 in third down conversions (.298), but through 10 games, Utah now ranks third overall (.454) in the top 30 in the FBS. On the defensive side, Utah was eighth through the first four games on third down defense (.369), but now leads the league (.361). Utah has recorded 450 yards or more of total offense in seven games this season, including in the last six.

In Pac-12 games, Oregon and Utah have put up similar statistics. Utah (38.4 points per game) is slightly outscoring Oregon (34.2) and has given up just five fewer points (162 to 167). Both teams are outgunning their opponents by 99.0 yards per game (693 yards total) and are nearly even in turnover margin (Utah +3; Oregon +2).

They have the two most efficient scoring offenses in the conference (Utah at 3.33 points per drive; Oregon at 2.91). Utah has a slight edge on defense, allowing just 1.96 points per drive to Oregon’s 2.04, and has committed just 4.29 penalties per game to Oregon’s 7.86.

Game Trends

  • Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.
  • Ducks are 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Utes are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a straight up win.
  • Utes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
  • Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Expert Prediction

  • Utah 30, Oregon 27


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