NFL Week 14 odds include a handful of noteworthy games as the playoff chase gets a bit more interesting. However, there is one game that does not fit this criterion at all but has a newsworthy note to it.
Laying a Big Number
Last week, the Cowboys put up a 50-plus burger on the Indianapolis Colts in a prime-time matchup on Sunday Night Football. So that’s going to make an impression on public/recreational bettors as they often tend to bet based on what they saw last.
What they saw last out of Dallas was a five-touchdown fourth quarter that turned a 21-19 lead into a 54-19 sandblasting. The Cowboys were consensus 11.5-point home favorites against an Indy team that’s now 4-8-1 straight up (SU) and 5-8 against the spread (ATS).
Meanwhile, the Texans have just one win all season (1-10-1 SU, 4-7-1 ATS). So it stands to reason that the Cowboys, at 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS, are laying a big number for this 1 p.m. ET Sunday kick on FOX.
“When you are dealing with spreads like that in an NFL game, it’s very rare that anyone sharp is laying the favorite,” PlayUp US head of risk Rex Beyers said. “It would be ‘dog or nothing for those guys, even if they have to hold their nose when hitting the ‘submit’ button.”
Indeed. So do yourselves a favor, folks: Don’t bet this game on the spread. Maybe bet on the full-game or first-half total, or find a prop bet that you think has some value.
Yeah, this one surprises a lot of casual observers: The Minnesota Vikings, with the league’s second-best record at 10-2 SU (6-5-1 ATS), are 2.5-point road underdogs to Detroit, which is just 5-7 SU, but a solid 8-4 ATS.
The Lions are actually pretty hot of late, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games. And oddsmakers still don’t believe in Kirk Cousins & Co. This contest is another 1 p.m. ET Sunday FOX game.
“The Lions-Vikings matchup is our most-bet game. We opened Vikes -1.5 and are currently at Lions -2.5,” WynnBet trader Andy Morrissey said Wednesday night. “We will need the Vikings in that one, as it stands.”
The Sharp Side
Beyers said PlayUp saw a bit of a midweek push from professional bettors on a couple of games.
“The sharpies got sent out on a few orders earlier this afternoon,” Beyers said Wednesday night. “They triple-popped me in Colorado on Raiders–Rams Under 44.5 (-112) for Thursday Night Football. And a respected player in Colorado, who has been losing, but I still move off his [action], gave us a decent pop on Giants +7.”
So Beyers now has the Raiders-Rams total at 43, and the Philadelphia Eagles at -6.5 against host New York, in a 1 p.m. ET Sunday FOX game.
WynnBet also noted the Eagles-Giants clash as one drawing a lot of early attention, though on the spread, not the total.
“We have great two-way handle. We’ve been toeing the line from [Eagles] -6.5 and -7,” Morrissey said. “We have respected players on both sides of this one, with Eagles -6.5 and Giants +7 bets.”
On our side of the counter, a sharp bettor I connect with each week has only one game piquing his interest thus far: The aforementioned Vikings-Lions tilt.
“I played Detroit at pick ‘em. The team is loaded on offense, with weapons all over,” he said. “Minnesota’s defense is shaky and should be exposed. Currently, it’s the only game I really like.”
With the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision either done with the season or awaiting bowl games, the Army-Navy game gets the big Saturday spotlight. It’s a neutral-site contest at Philadelphia’s Lincoln Financial Field.
Navy (4-7 SU, 7-4 ATS) hasn’t played since upsetting Central Florida 17-14 on Nov. 19, with the Midshipmen closing as 15.5-point road underdogs. Army (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) has gotten a substantial break, too, routing UMass 44-7 as a 20.5-point road favorite on Nov. 26.
By midweek, it’s clear bettors have an opinion on this game, at least at WynnBet.
“Army-Navy has been pretty one-sided on Navy and, naturally, the Under,” Morrissey said, alluding to a whopping 16-0 Under run in the last 16 Army-Navy clashes. “We will be rooting for points and Army as it currently stands.”
WynnBet opened this game on Nov. 29 at Army -2 (-105). By Sunday, the Black Knights were down to -1, and on Tuesday, the line jumped the fence to Navy -1 on the way to -1.5. As of late Wednesday night, the Midshipmen are up to -2.5.
WynnBet opened the total at 33.5 and initially ticked up to 34, but it’s been at 32.5 since Tuesday afternoon.
More NFL Nuggets
Let’s speed you through a couple more matchups on the Week 14 NFL odds board, from WynnBet:
- “We opened the 49ers -3.5 and it got bet up to -4. Some of our most respected players immediately bet the Bucs +4, so we will need the 49ers by 5 or more there,” Morrissey said.
- “It has been all Raiders bets for Thursday. We opened -5.5 and are currently -6.5,” Morrissey said of Las Vegas approaching a touchdown favorite against the host L.A. Rams. “We have pretty big liability on this one compared to other Thursday night games at this point.”
Tom Brady returns home to Bay Area as 49ers host Bucs in Week 14
Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe talk Brady, Bucs vs. 49ers in Week 14.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There hasn’t been much #MajorWager activity reported this week. Still, in the NFL Week 13 Monday Night Football contest, a couple of Caesars Sports customers did all right for themselves:
- $110,000 on Saints +3.5
- $55,000 on Saints +3.5
Tampa Bay trailed 16-3 in the fourth quarter but scored a touchdown with three minutes left and another in the final seconds to squeak out a 17-16 victory. Thankfully, the bettors had the Saints on the spread instead of the moneyline. The $110,000 play led to a $100,000 win, while the $55,000 bet was a $50,000 win.
We certainly enjoy it when bettors of bankrolls large and small get a win over the bookmakers. Here’s hoping you cash a ticket or two in this weekend’s matchups.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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