I’m still trying to recover from last weekend’s Jets (+3.5) bet. Losing on a punt return touchdown in the final minute took a year off my life.
Our best bets (27-24-1) are in the green, and I’m rolling with five plays over the next few days. This space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These are the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work with odds courtesy of FOX Bet.
No. 9 Oregon at No. 21 Oregon State (3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, ABC)
I hate how much I love the Beavers this weekend.
Oregon quarterback Bo Nix clearly isn’t anywhere near 100% – he only rushed the ball twice for -3 yards last Saturday – and he’s very lucky that Utah’s Cam Rising hurled three interceptions.
Oregon State’s dual-threat offense will challenge the Ducks defense all afternoon long, and I won’t be surprised if the Beavs pull the upset in Corvallis. OSU is 9-2 ATS this season, and I expect another tally in the left column.
Take the points.
PICK: Oregon State (+3 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 3 points (or win outright)
No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State (noon, FOX and FOX Sports App)
If Blake Corum was healthy, this would be a different story.
Michigan’s star running back is reportedly going to “try and give it a go,” but I don’t expect much from him. That really sucks for Michigan because Corum is the baseline for everything their offense does.
Meanwhile, the forecast couldn’t be better for Ohio State’s high-flying pass attack. Temperatures are expected to be in the mid-50s with no precipitation and minimal wind, so Heisman Trophy favorite C.J. Stroud should thrive with all those skillful wide receivers.
Give me the Buckeyes by double digits.
PICK: Ohio State (-8 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 8 points
No. 25 Louisville at Kentucky (3 p.m. ET Saturday, SEC Network)
There’s still no word about the status of Cardinals’ starting quarterback Malik Cunningham. The senior missed last week’s home finale against NC State with a shoulder injury and even if he plays, will he be effective?
Either way, these SEC rivals are both holding their opponents to less than 20 points per game, and Kentucky’s run defense is very stingy. And these two offenses have left a lot to be desired over the last few weeks.
Louisville’s D is sneaky good against the pass, and I don’t expect Kentucky’s Will Levis to go bananas either. A 20-17 final is extremely possible.
Defense, defense, defense.
PICK: Under 43 total points scored combined by both teams at FOX Bet
Herd Hierarchy: Bucs return, 49ers climb up on Colin’s Top 10 of Week 12
Colin Cowherd shares his Top 10 teams heading into Week 12.
Texans at Dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)
Are the Miami Dolphins two touchdowns better than anybody?
The Texans aren’t for everybody, but they’re tough to pass up when the point spread is this massive. Houston head coach Lovie Smith has created a solid culture, and this group has really fought in every game over the last month. That’s more than half the battle with a big underdog.
Sure, Miami’s offense is loaded, but its defense is nothing special. Houston should be able to move the chains with running back Dameon Pierce, and as long as Davis Mills protects the football, I like my chances. Also, it’s very likely the backdoor never closes with a number this large.
I’ll take two touchdowns in this spot.
PICK: Texans (+14 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 14 points (or win outright)
Aaron Rodgers, Packers booed off Lambeau field in Week 11 loss to Titans
Skip Bayless and Shannon Sharpe react to Packers loss vs. Titans.
Packers at Eagles (8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC)
Philadelphia isn’t playing good football lately.
The Eagles lost at home to Washington two weeks ago and barely escaped Indianapolis last Sunday with a 17-16 victory. It’s amazing what happens when you can’t feast on a mediocre quarterback every week, huh?
It’s no fun betting on teams on life support, but I don’t think the Packers have quit just yet. This is basically their season, and I’ve certainly made worse bets over the years than putting my money on a desperate Aaron Rodgers.
Give me Green Bay just under a touchdown.
PICK: Packers (+6.5 at FOX Bet) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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