The Buffalo Bills lost to the Kansas City Chiefs twice last season, including in the AFC Championship Game, and get a chance for payback on Sunday night in a rematch at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are short favorites on the NFL odds.
Sunday Night Football Week 5
How to Bet Bills at Chiefs NFL Odds & TV Info
- When: Sunday, 8:20 PM ET
- Where: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: NBC
- Radio: http://www.siriusxm.com/nfl
- Stream Option: NBC Sports app
- Opening NFL Lines: Chiefs -2.5 (total 56.5)
Last Season
Buffalo lost at home 26-17 in week 6 to Kansas City a year ago and then 38-24 in Kansas City in the AFC title game. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes completed 76% of his passes for 325 yards and threw for three touchdowns in the title game. Their offense converted 60% of their third downs, scored touchdowns on five of six trips to the red zone and averaged 6.9 yards per play.
This will be the ninth time in 10 seasons that teams who played in the most recent AFC Championship are meeting the following year. Over the previous eight rematches, the winner of the rematch game has gone on to the Super Bowl five times, winning the Lombardi Trophy in four of those seasons. And in that span, the only time the winner of the rematch did not make the playoffs, in 2018, the losing team in the rematch went on to win the Super Bowl.
Why Bet on Buffalo?
The Bills dominated the Texans 40-0 last Sunday. Houston had -23 net passing yards during the first half, the lowest mark by any team since 1999. The Bills have produced at least three turnovers in each of the last three games since failing to force a takeaway during their Week 1 loss to the Steelers.
Buffalo QB Josh Allen completed 20-of-29 passes for 248 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. Allen and the Bills were stopped in the red zone multiple times by a stern Texans defense. Buffalo improved to 18-1 all-time when Allen has a passer rating of 100 or better.
Tight end Dawson Knox is becoming Allen’s favorite target. Knox has taken the “next step” he was looking for in Year 3 after working with a specialist to improve his hand-eye coordination during the offseason. The work has particularly paid off in the red zone, where Knox’s four touchdowns are tied for most by a tight end in the NFL through four weeks (Rob Gronkowski). The four TDs lead the Bills.
Buffalo’s 118 points scored in its last three games (35, 43, 40) marks the second-highest scoring output in team history for such a span. It trails only their 142 points scored in the final three games of last season (48, 35, 56).
Buffalo enters Week 4 with the top-ranked scoring defense (11.0 points allowed per game) and is tied for second with Kansas City in scoring offense (33.5 points per game). The Bills lead the league in point differential (+90) and became the third team since 1990 to record two shutouts in their first four games of a season, joining the Ravens in 2000 and Washington in 1991. Both Baltimore and Washington advanced to the Super Bowl in those seasons. On Sunday, Buffalo can become the fifth team since 2000 with a point differential of 100-or-higher through its first five games of a season.
“We’re an attack-oriented defense and we’ve got to protect that reputation,” DT Ed Oliver said. “We’re going to play downhill with the linebackers, and our DBs are going to break on the ball and our D-line is going to penetrate. It’s just that simple.”
Why Bet on Kansas City?
The Chiefs won 42-30 at Philadelphia last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes, who leads the league with 14 touchdown passes, threw five touchdown passes and became the fifth quarterback in NFL history to register at least three touchdown passes in each of his first four games of a season. Mahomes has a 40-10 record (.800) as a starting quarterback and joined Ken Stabler (40-9-1) as the only quarterbacks whose career began in the Super Bowl era to win 40 of their first 50 career starts.
On Sunday, Mahomes can join Tom Brady (first 10 games in 2007) and Hall of Famer Steve Young (first five games in 1998) as the only quarterbacks with at least three touchdown passes in each of their first five games of a season. Mahomes, who has 28 career games with at least 300 passing yards since entering the NFL in 2017, has at least 300 passing yards in two of his first four games this season and can tie Kurt Warner (29) for the most 300-yard passing games by a player in his first five seasons in NFL history.
Tyreek Hill had 11 receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns last week, his 15th career game with at least two total touchdowns. With two touchdowns against Buffalo, Hill can tie Bob Hayes (16 games) for the third-most games with at least two touchdowns by a wide receiver in his first six seasons in NFL history.
Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire has totaled 202 rushing yards over the last two weeks, which ranks fourth in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry (270), Ezekiel Elliott (238) and Alvin Kamara (209) in that span. Additionally, his nine forced missed tackles rank third among tailbacks in that time. Edwards-Helaire racked up 102 of those yards against Philadelphia while chipping in two catches for 12 yards and a touchdown.
Kansas City has racked up 386 rushing yards over the last two weeks – the third-most in the NFL – behind the Chiefs’ new look offensive line that continues to improve every week. Third down has also been an area in which Kansas City has thrived, allowing the Chiefs to maintain drives against conservative defensive schemes. They’re converting 64.1 percent of third down chances, which is the highest rate through Week 4 for any team in the NFL since 1991.
This will be the Kansas City debut of wideout Josh Gordon. The Chiefs last week signed Gordon, who hadn’t played in the NFL since 2019. Gordon led the NFL in receiving in 2013, when he played for the Cleveland Browns and accumulated 1,646 receiving yards. The Chiefs have been searching for a wide receiver who can play every down along with Tyreek Hill since losing Sammy Watkins as a free agent in the spring.
Game Trends
- Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
- Bills are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
- Bills are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. AFC.
- Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite.
- Chiefs are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Chiefs are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.
- Bills are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Expert Prediction
- Chiefs 30, Bills 28
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