NBA Playoffs: Memphis vs Golden State Prediction & Best Bets For Game 6

The Golden State Warriors were flat-out embarrassed in Game 5 of their Western Conference playoff series in Memphis, but NBA oddsmakers fully expect the Warriors to finish off the series in Game 6 against the Grizzlies on Friday in San Francisco.

How to Bet Grizzlies at Warriors NBA Odds & TV Info

  • When: Friday, 10 PM ET
  • Where: Chase Center
  • TV: ESPN
  • Stream: ESPN app
  • Radio: Tunein.com
  • NBA Odds: Warriors -8.5 (total 217.5)

Why Bet on Memphis?

The Grizzlies are still without superstar Ja Morant – he’s not going to return in this series even if the Grizz can force a Game 7 – yet they absolutely torched the Warriors 134-95 on Wednesday. The Grizzlies led by as many as 55 points, the 2nd-largest lead at any point of a playoff game over the last 25 years. The only larger lead came from the 2009 Nuggets, who led by 58.

It was basically over at halftime with the Grizzlies up 27. Their 77 points were the most they have scored in any half in their playoff history. The 27-point margin was their largest point margin in a half in a playoff game all-time. Memphis’ 25 points off turnovers were the most by any team in the 1st half over the last 25 postseasons. Memphis outrebounded the Warriors 30-17 in the first half and outscored Golden State 14-0 in second chance points.

The 39-point victory tied for the largest win by a team when their All-Star from that season does not play in NBA postseason history. Memphis is now 21-6 when Morant does not play this season.

Tyus Jones started in Morant’s spot again and had 21 points on 8-for-12 shooting with nine assists and three rebounds. He also didn’t commit any turnovers while collecting a pair of steals and a block across 24 minutes.

Desmond Bane had been struggling but finished with 21 points in 24 minutes. The scoring total was Bane’s highest so far in the series and marked only the second time he has finished with double-digit points. Bane came up huge for Memphis in the first round against Minnesota, averaging 23.5 points per game on 50 percent shooting.

Jaren Jackson Jr. was the third Grizzlies player to finish with 21 points and the power forward nailed four three-pointers on six attempts. Jackson also swatted two shots in the game, marking the eighth time in 11 playoff contests that he has finished with multiple blocks.

The Grizzlies believe they have new life and hope that they can prevail again to force a Game 7 in Memphis.

“I would say we are energized,” forward Dillon Brooks said. “We’re locked in, and we’re all eyes on Game 6. Try to keep surviving.”

Why Bet on Golden State?

The Warriors simply were flat and acted like they had a throwaway game in Game 5. The Grizzlies blew open a one-point game, turning it into a 77-50 halftime lead in a matter of 13 minutes. Memphis’ 39-point win tied for the third-largest victory when facing elimination in NBA postseason history.

Overall, the Grizzlies outrebounded the Warriors 55-37 while scoring 50 points in the paint to Golden State’s 36. Memphis also grabbed 18 offensive rebounds while outscoring Golden State 24-6 in second chance points. It was the fifth-worst playoff loss in franchise history for the Warriors, who lead the series, 3-2. The Grizzlies’ 77 first-half points were the second-most points scored by a Warriors playoff opponent in any half, trailing only Cleveland’s 86 points scored in the first half in Game 4 of the NBA Finals on June 9, 2017.

“It was awful,” said Warriors guard Klay Thompson, who suffered through the second-largest loss in a game in which he, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green all played together. “It was embarrassing. From the opening tip, they had great flow, and they were more aggressive than us. … We all had the mindset that we were going to close it out tonight, but sometimes basketball [isn’t] an exact science, and we played like a shell of ourselves.”

Thompson led the Warriors with only 19 points. He finished -45 in plus/minus on the floor, tied for the worst plus/minus in any playoff game over the last 25 postseasons. Jonathan Kuminga, who was pulled from the starting lineup for the second half, played some garbage time and added 17 points and three boards, Stephen Curry had 14 points, four assists and three 3-pointers, and Damion Lee and Moses Moody both scored 10 in the loss.

Golden State has played the past two games without head coach Steve Kerr after he tested positive for COVID and it’s not clear if he will be ready for Friday.

The Warriors have a 43-25 all-time record in series-clinching games, including 19-9 since 2015. Memphis has a 4-11 record in elimination games, including 1-1 since 2020. In Game 6s, the Warriors have a 18-9 record, including 6-2 since 2015. Including the regular season, the Warriors have won their last seven home games (five in the playoffs).

Game Trends

  • Grizzlies are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog.
  • Grizzlies are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
  • Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
  • Warriors are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
  • Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Warriors are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.

Expert Prediction

  • Warriors 111, Grizzlies 107

 


 

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