Reds vs Brewers MLB | Last Chance For Cincinnati In Division?

The only team with a shot to catch the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central is the Cincinnati Reds, and it’s a long shot. The Reds could make things more realistic with a sweep in Beer Town this week. The teams open a series there on Tuesday with Milwaukee favored on the MLB odds.

How to Bet Reds at Brewers MLB Odds & TV Info

Why Bet on Cincinnati?

The Reds enter on a four-game winning streak to cut the Brewers’ NL Central lead to 7.5 games. Cincinnati finished a home sweep of Miami on Sunday with a 3-1 win. Tyler Naquin launched a pair of solo home runs.

Mike Moustakas went 1-for-3 with a solo home run. The infielder’s skid extended to 0-for-24 before his fifth-inning solo shot. Moustakas has had a brutal season with five homers, 16 RBI, 18 runs scored and eight doubles while slashing .206/.309/.389 through 149 plate appearances. While he has a 12.1 percent walk rate and a 22.1 percent strikeout rate this year, he hasn’t been able to make enough contact in 13 games since he returned from a heel injury.

Reliever Tejay Antone (forearm) remains in line to return from the 10-day injured list ahead of Tuesday’s series opener. Antone made his seventh and final rehab appearance at Triple-A Louisville on Sunday, striking out two of the three batters he faced in a perfect inning. The right-hander should immediately slot in as the set-up man ahead of Mychal Givens.

The Reds have won 6 of the last 7 games and 8 of the last 10 games at American Family Field. But in their previous meeting, the first 3 games after the All-Star break, the Brewers recorded their first sweep in the Queen City since September 2019.

It’s Tyler Mahle (10-4, 3.78) on the mound. He has established single-season career highs in wins, innings pitched, strikeouts and quality starts (8) and has tied his career high in starts. Mahle has been the victim of a blown save 6 times, including 3 times in his last 5 starts. He leads the staff and ranks among the National League leaders in strikeouts (T10th) and strikeouts per 9 innings (6th, 10.61).

Mahle is 3-3, 6.00 in 12 starts at Great American Ball Park (.275oba) and 7-1, 1.86 in 13 starts on the road (.186oba). In his 2-1 win at Milwaukee on June 16, Mahle tied his career high with 12 strikeouts, the most by a Reds pitcher in a game this season.

Why Bet on Milwaukee?

The Brewers are on pace for 98 wins, which would break the regular season franchise record of 96 accomplished in 2011 (96-66) and 2018 (96-67).

They come off their second straight win, 7-3 over Washington on Sunday. However, it might have been costly as trade acquisition and infielder Eduardo Escobar was pulled from Sunday’s game what was initially termed right hamstring discomfort.  Escobar has appeared in 21 games with the Brewers, all starts. He is batting .280 with two homers and eight RBIs since the trade. The first-time All-Star was acquired from Arizona on 7/28 for OF Cooper Hummel and INF Alberto Ciprian. Luis Urias would see an uptick in playing time if Escobar were to miss any games.

Avisaíl García has hit a career-high 24 HR. His previous high was 20 in 2019 with the Rays. Garcia (73 RBI) needs 7 RBI to tie his career high of 80 in 2017 with the White Sox. He is batting .355 (49-for-138) with 11 HR and 31 RBI over his last 40 games.

It’s Cy Young contender Corbin Burnes (8-4) on the mound here. Burnes spun six scoreless innings last Tuesday as the Brewers beat the Cardinals 2-0. Burnes had a season-low three strikeouts and recorded only 10 swinging strikes. However, he also carried a no-hitter into his final inning of work before the Cards picked up back-to-back one-out singles to put runners at the corners. Burnes was unfazed, needing just two pitches to induce back-to-back foul outs.  The 26-year-old has a 1.55 ERA in 58.1 innings over his last nine starts and 2.13 ERA overall this year.

Burnes has 14 quality starts, including 3 in a row. Opponents are batting .199 (93-for-468, 5hr) off him and Burnes has 175 strikeouts compared to just 23 walks in 127.0 innings. His only start vs. Cincinnati came in an 8-0 win on 7/18 at Great American Ball Park (8.1ip, 5h, 1bb, 12k).

Game Trends

  • Reds are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Reds are 4-1 in their last 5 games following a win.
  • Reds are 25-10 in their last 35 vs. National League Central.
  • Brewers are 4-1 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
  • Brewers are 7-2 in their last 9 during game 1 of a series.
  • Brewers are 38-13 in their last 51 games following a win.
  • Reds are 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Milwaukee.

Expert Prediction

  • Brewers 3, Reds 2


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